On the Eights: Mid-term Grades (Los Angeles Lakers Basketball)

Posted on 2006/12/28 18:04:07 (December 2006).

It's now 41 games into the 82 game season. Do you know where your Lakers are?

Record: 26-15. Six games back from the red hot Phoenix Suns. LA has gone 12-9 without Lamar Odom (and without Kwame Brown for much of the stretch), a feat that seems almost unimaginable. This is an exciting Lakers team that beat perennial powerhouse San Antonio and Miami and Dallas, last year's teams from the NBA Finals, all within the past two weeks. Then again, they show the telltale sign of a young team: inconsistency. LA was blown out badly at Dallas a few days after their win (in LA) and was embarrassed by a putrid New Orleans/OK City Hornets. The Lakers are on pace for 52 wins, which is almost always good for a top 5 seed. I'll go on record as having predicted 48 wins for the Lakers this season, so to see them outperforming that expectation even with injuries is just amazing.
Grade: A

http://img295.imageshack.us/img295/8365/philjacksonvp7.jpg
Coaching: Some of Phil Jackson's more puzzling personnel moves pay off (witness Smush Parker's six or seven game streak where he was quite good). Others leave the fans scratching their heads (Who are our starting five? Who is our backup Point Guard?). But say what you will, Phil Jackson is receiving a lot of hype for Coach of the Year, and with good reason. This is essentially the same team that hovered around .500 for most of the season last year, unable to win the big games. This season, the Lakers are making a push toward that upper echelon, the teams that have a legit shot at the championship. A good deal of that success is due to Phil Jackson.
Grade: A-

Front Court: Starting Forward Lamar Odom has missed roughly 20 games this season. Last season's starting Center Chris Mihm has missed all 41 games. Starting Center Kwame Brown has missed 17 games this season. Ronny Turiaf has received a DNP in 9. Brian Cook another 9. The only Front Court players who have not missed a game are the second year giant Andrew Bynum and Luke Walton. Given those facts, the Front Court should be in shambles. It's not. Offensively, each position is performing above the league average (according to 82games.com's PER rating data). Small Forward leads the team at 20.5 PER, followed by 17.6 for Center, and 16.1 for Power Forward (15.0 is the league average). Defensively, with 15.0 again being average, the Lakers have shown some struggles. Power Forwards have been torched for an 18.8 rating, while Centers have yielded a 16.9 rating. Small Forwards have performed right around the league average (at 15.7). As Lamar Odom (18.1 offensive PER / 15.9 defensive PER at the Power Forward spot), Kwame Brown (vies with Kobe for the top 1 on 1 defender on the team), and Chris Mihm (a +0.5 PER advantage during last season) all look to return, look for the Lakers to begin to turn those numbers more in their favor. Do not lose sight of the fact that two second year players are having fantastic seasons (Bynum 8 points, 6 boards, and 1.7 blocks per game; Turiaf with 4.4 points, 3 boards, and .9 blocks per game in limited action).
Grade: B

Back Court: Kobe Bryant hasn't been healthy all year, but he is a strong MVP candidate with a ridiculous +20.3 PER advantage over his opponents when he plays Small Forward. Then again, 28 points, 5.6 assists, and 5.3 rebounds per game will never be considered liabilities. With Maurice Evans, who has seven 15-point or better performances to his credit this season, as the backup, Shooting Guard is not the problem. Last season's starting Point Guard Smush Parker has been the starter this season. His poor playoff performance may have put some doubt in his mind. It seems to have put some in his coaches' minds. Parker's minutes have slipped by three-and-a-half minutes per game, and only recently has he shown signs of getting on track offensively. Defensively, he continues to be less-than-adequate. He will not be dethroned, however, by rookie Jordan Farmar who continues to tantalize with the promise of consistent play some time down the line (he has been in double figures 10 times and has nearly a 2.5:1 ast/to ratio) or by third year man Sasha Vujacic (who is suddenly shooting the ball with the once-promised accuracy of a "pure shooter": 51% on FGs, 46% on Threes, and 12/12 on Free Throws in January; meanwhile, his AST/TO ratio in January is 13:4). Sasha seems to have a feeble psyche and easily gets rattled while Farmar is best not thrown to the wolves. Coach Phil Jackson should continue to use multiple lineups and throw PGs out there to match up with talents on the court. Even Shammond William and Aaron McKie (!) have seen time in this young month of January. The bottom line, however, is that the Point Guard play must improve if the Lakers are to be a threat for the championship.
Grade: C+

Bench: The Lakers' bench continues to come up big, with different players stepping up on different nights. I do have to be concerned, however, as the season wears on. Can these (mostly) young and inexperienced players continue to play beyond their experience and capabilities or will wear and tear bring the bench back to earth? If it weren't for the impending return of Chris Mihm and Kwame Brown at the Center spot and Lamar Odom at the Forward spot, I'd be quite frightened. As it is, the biggest problem down the stretch may be finding sufficient minutes to keep everyone happy. The biggest surprise off the bench has been Mo Evans at 7.4 points per game and good energy (I think most Lakers fans expected Ronny Turiaf to play with the heart and intensity he has shown during the first half of the season.). The biggest disappointment is not Aaron McKie who has earned roughly $1 million for each point he has scored as a Laker. It has to be Vladimir Radmanovic. Brought in for five years at around $30 million total, Vlad has battled injury (bravely, I suppose) and has shot just 41%-37%-73%. Considering he was supposed to be a sniper for the Lakers, this is a dreadful line. The question is almost "What does Vlad do that Cook doesn't, and at a lower price?" Well, the answer is "Dribble, pass, run, hustle, and play defense." The difference between the two players, however much to my surprise, is not as vast as I'd suspected. And I'm not sure that it's $30 million worth.
Grade: B

Lakers' Ace: Put those votes for Most Improved Player on hold. Luke Walton has cooled off after a torrid start. His numbers are still solid and well above last season's numbers, but there is only one Kobe Bryant. His numbers are undeniable, and his ability to will his team to victory is now starting to show. Myriad are the examples that showed how players went to have their best shooting seasons with Kobe on their team, but this is really the first time Kobe's (not Shaq's and Kobe's) teammates have clearly benefited in the win column.

Hot Seat: In the starting five it's Smush Parker. For a spot in the rotation, it could be Vladimir Radmanovic. Parker's minutes per game in January are just above 30. Sasha Vujacic and Jordan Farmar have combined to average slightly more, possibly suggesting that Parker's role with the team is diminishing as the other players gain more experience and ease in the system. Vlad Radmanovic, as noted, is not doing the one thing he was brought here to do: shoot the ball well. The return of Lamar Odom and Kwame Brown put Shammond Williams and Aaron McKie back on the Inactive List. But what happens when Chris Mihm is ready to play? The Lakers with the fewest minutes per game among the other twelve players are Turiaf (12), Vujacic (12), Cook (16), and Radmanovic (17).

Big Question: How interested in making a move are the Lakers? Penny Hardaway has apparently been in contact with the Lakers (or vice versa) about the possibility of joining the team. There's obviously some dead weight in Williams and McKie, but does Jackson want to add a player at this point in the season? I do not believe a Phil Jackson-coached NBA team has ever made a mid-season trade, but he's the greatest coach ever. If the team would benefit, Jackson would make a move.

Preview: 41 games to go. The Lakers should finish up the month with 10 wins, 5 losses if they can avoid a loss to any of their remaining foes except San Antonio (always a good game). Only 19 of LA's remaining games are at home, and of the 22 road games, LA would be fortunate to win half of them. I'm going to split the difference between my beginning of the season prediction of 48 wins and LA's current trend of 52. The Lakers finish up 50-32.
Prediction for the next 8: 4-1 to close the month and 6-2 overall as the Lakers make a strong move into the second half of the season.

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