Los Angeles Lakers Draft Review

Posted on 2007/02/04 23:19:51 (February 2007).

The 2007 NBA Draft has come and gone. Amid a sea of turmoil, the Lakers managed to find some repose, make some calculated selections on draft day.

Another draft analysis? Yes, sorry. I think this is worth reading, of course. I basically watch all the footage I can find of the player, read everything I can find about the player, and lay it all out there, being clear what are my thoughts and what are the thoughts of others. I have been wholly to avoid reading any draft analysis from other writers, including on this site.

JAVARIS CRITTENTON - 19th Pick of the Draft
6'3 to 6'5 (close to 6'5 with shoes), 194-198#
19 years old
4.5% body fat, 38" vertical, 11 reps in the bench

Played for Georgia Tech
Team went 20-12, eliminated in the round of 64, NCAA Tourney

What are people saying?
There are some unanimous thoughts on Crittenton. Javaris possesses a fantastic combination of size (+), strength (+), quickness (+), and athleticism (+)for a Point Guard. He loves to take players off the dribble and does so with a terrific first step (+) and speed (+) that has been called "blazing" by one scout. While he possesses great heart (+) and is a competitor who backs down from no challenges (+), taking the ball fearlessly to the hoop (+), often drawing fouls (+), he sometimes plays out of control (-) due to his inexperience (-).

Defensively, Crittenton sounds like pure potential. His speed, length, competitive fire, and strength give him all the tools he needs to be successful defensively from a physical point of view. On top of that, he is said to be very coachable and a student of the game, breaking down tape of top Point Guards. Unfortunately, at just 19 years of age and with just one year of college ball under his belt, Crittenton does not know how to use his skills in a one on one setting effectively. Worse than that, he does not rotate well defensively and is routinely beaten on the pick and roll.

As a matter of fact, all of Crittenton's shortcomings can be attributed to his lack of experience. While normally a selfless player who involves his teammates, he sometimes gets out of control, forces the issue, overdribbles, shoots too much, dominates the ball, and forgets that he has four other players on the court with him. Crittenton is a fantastic prospect, probably the second best Point Guard prospect in the draft class, but he has a steep climb before him if he is to make use of his gifts.

What I saw:
Physically, Crittenton is impressive. His frame is very large for a Point Guard (ideal for the triangle), very muscular, and very lean all at once. Crittenton looks so smooth on the court, displays precise body control and the ability to accelerate from a dead stop to full speed so quickly he may be able to give Tony Parker a run for his money in a few seasons.

In a game setting, Crittenton displays a tremendous offensive arsenal already. His range is excellent by NBA standards, he can penetrate and absorb contact with ease and still hit his shots, and he has the drive and pull back ability reminiscent of Sam Cassell. His leaping ability is fantastic and his body control is so precise he is a dangerous dunker with either hand, which should remind Lakers fans of Smush Parker. His handles are solid and his passing ability is crisp, including post entry passes and floating passes for alley oops, but he does get a bit flashy at times.

Defensively, Crittenton has the tools, but he uses his hands a lot, which may be an issue for him. He plays tentatively on defense at times, either concerned about picking up fouls or as if he is coasting for the opportunity to explode on offense. I cannot stress enough that he has defensive tools better than nearly any Guard in the draft. He needs a defensive guru to take him under his wings. This is LA's relentless defensive stopper if only Phil Jackson can instill that mindset in him.

Player Comparisons:
I have already mentioned that certain aspects of his game remind me of Sam Cassell and Smush Parker. I would also add the attitude of Shammond Williams. Nonetheless, Crittenton is most frequently compared to Steve Francis, with some saying that his passing ability will be superior to Francis's. Others see Crittenton as a John Gilchrist as the worst case scnario. These are all potent offensive Point Guards, but only Cassell displayed the defense that Crittenton seems capable of unleashing.

What might we expect?
The Lakers have taken a number of Guards under Phil Jackson, including Jordan Farmar, Sasha Vujacic, John Celestand, Von Wafer, but none of them possess Crittenton's tools. Given Phil Jackson's fond like for players with these abilities and the exodus of Shammond Williams, Aaron McKie, Smush Parker, and the looming possibility of a trade that sends out Jordan Farmar, Javaris Crittenton could be the Jordan Farmar of 2007. Undoubtedly, Crittenton would benefit from time spent in the D-League, but roster moves may force him into the rotation sooner rather than later. First round picks for LA have generally seen significant minutes.

Crittenton could easily see more than 400 minutes of game time and averages of 4.5 points and 2 assists per game. In terms of his maximum potential, I begin to salivate. As a sixth man, he could contribute somewhere around 7 points and 3.5 assists, but there is good reason to think that as a starter in a more traditional offense, he could see closer to 16 points and 7 assists. In the triangle, he could be something along the lines of a 15 and 4 player with good defense.

DRAFT GRADE: A Crittenton will not run the show this season, but no one available at 19 would have. Crittenton has lottery upside but needs to be brought along with skill and patience. If that is done, he could be one of the top 5 players from this draft class.

SUN YUE - 40th Pick of the Draft
6'9, 205-215#
22 years old
34" vertical, 185 pound bench (9 reps), 8'9 standing reach, 5.1% body fat
Played for the ABA in 05/06 and 06/07
Chinese Olympic Team 2006

What are people saying?
Some of the comments that appear ubiquitously about Sun Yue include good to excellent court vision (+), skilled at attacking the basket and does it regularly (+), has a quick first step (+), decent or better ball handler (+), who is pretty remarkable with the left hand, is improving his right hand.

The following also appear, with infrequency:
Good passer (+), who relies on the left too much (-), and is too weak (-). Less frequently, people wonder about his position. He does not have the speed to play Point Guard defensively (-), does not have the bulk to play Small Forward defensively (-). He should work on his post game (-), has range inside NBA three point (+), dunks well (+), has decent lateral quickness (+), but has had issues with his shooting form (-).

What I saw:
Physically, Sun Yue is tall and skinny. He isn't quite Sasha Vujacic skinny, but it is close. His legs are fairly well-muscled, but his upper body is just lean, little definition.

Sun Yue plays at a high tempo, on occasion a bit out of control, loves to run the floor, looking to pass first when he does so. This may be because he is a skilled passer whose repertoire includes floating passes, crisp passes, and bounce passes. On the other hand, it could be because he does not often go to the rim with authority. He dunks freely and with skill on fast breaks, but rarely in a defended setting. He does not shoot a lot of jumpers, but looks pretty good when he decides to do it. He is tenacious on the glass, fighting hard, outrebounding bigger and stronger men. His athleticism isn't great for the NBA, perhaps only average, and he is a bit too passive. Yue has made ridiculous improvement over the past two seasons. This is a theme that should stand out about his profile. Every weakness from older profiles that can be addressed has been addressed if not rectified.

Defensively, I have concerns about Yue. His long arms, long frame, are his biggest attributes. He also seems to play intelligently, but he does not seem to have the ability to stay with quicker players. I would say that his footspeed is only average for a Small Forward, meaning he will get beaten by Shooting Guards and torched by Point Guards. On the positive side, he blocks shots very well, plays the passing lanes, occasionally looking like Magic Johnson on defense (and on occasion on offense as well).

Player Comparisons:
Boris Diaw, a slower Shaun Livingston. Yue has the tools to be an incredibly versatile player, really cause fits for opponents at the PG, SG, or SF spot on offense, but he may have to be hidden defensively. He should fill the stat sheet when he plays and he should benefit those around him. He probably projects to a Combo Guard, taking on the less lethal of the two opposing guards, as a rookie and until he puts on some weight. He may then be a solid Point Forward

What might we expect?
Sun Yue is likely a project, but he may find himself benefiting from the uncertainty surrounding current Small Forward Luke Walton. Luke Walton and backup Vladimir Radmanovic have both experienced injury concerns of late and Walton is not currently re-signed with the team. If one or both misses significant time with injury, Sun Yue could step in and find himself playing solid minutes. Although Phil Jackson is not a fan (or so it seems) of sending players to the D-League, that is exactly where Yue belongs assuming he earns a roster spot. An interesting wrinkle to the equation? Walton, the player most similar to Yue, has played some of the heaviest minutes for a rookie on a Phil Jackson-coached squad.

Sun Yue could average 2.5 points, 2 assists, and 2 boards in approximately 10 minutes of game time per contest as a rookie. His chances of excelling as either a scorer or a rebounder are slim, but he probably has the ability to become an elite passing Forward, along the lines of Luke Walton and Lamar Odom. The triangle is essentially the ideal fit for him.

Recent Stats
In 2005/06, Sun Yue started off in the ABA on the wrong foot. He looked bad. He turned it around and made the all-aba 2nd team. His final numbers included 9.5 points, 7 rebounds, 6.7 assists, 1.9 steals, 2.5 blocks, 4.3 TO (1.56 ast/to ratio), and a shooting percentage of 39. In 2006/07, Yue made dramatic improvements, making the All-ABA First Team with averages of 13.5 points, 6 rebounds, 10.5 assists, 1.9 steals, 2 blocks, and 3.8 TO (2.76 ast/to ratio), and hitting 46% of his shots.

DRAFT GRADE: B I am aware that there were some better-proven talents on the board, but I think there are two options for choosing a second rounder. You can pursue the guy who is basically guaranteed to be a role player or you can take a risk on a player with rare abilities. Yue has incredible potential.

MARC GASOL - 48th Pick of the Draft
6'11 to 7'1 (usually 7' or 7'1), 265-268#
22 years old
Played for Akasvayu Girona
FIBA champions, 2006

What are people saying?
The most common things you'll hear about Marc Gasol are that he has a high basketball IQ (+), he has good to very good hands (+), and he has poor conditioning (-). It is often said that he is a good team player (+), flashes a variety of post moves (+), passes well within the flow of the offense (+), is strong (+), but has limited quickness (-).

The following also appear, with infrequency:
Good vision, puts forth a great effort, good ballhandler, not a good athlete, takes good shots, a fundamentally sound player who is working on developing his post repertoire. While he seems more than to hold his own defensively, he is not a shotblocker and may not have the skill advantage over opposing bigs in the NBA that he does in Europe.

What I saw:
Physically, I see a very tall but apparently somewhat lanky player who has a big frame and room to grow. His physique looks a lot like older brother Pau's physique. He could add quality pounds to his frame with ease, it seems. A large frame that is currently fairly lean with some musculature.

In a game setting, Marc seems to enjoy running the pick and roll, which he does fairly adroitly, using decent speed to get to the hoop. He fairly regularly takes contact yet succeeds in hitting the shots, including both layups and jumpers. He has the ability to score around the basket with either hand, even hitting layups left-handed while absorbing contact. He passes readily, hitting open men and cutters alike, unless he is very close to the rim for a score. Does drive occasionally, shows good handles when he does, but not great body control and speed. Marc will have to go to the basket with more authority or he will see more of his shots blocked and altered by body contact despite his strength. He tends to get up in the air a bit, tries to outmuscle his opponents. At the Center spot in the NBA, he will not have that luxury. Finally in terms of his offensive repertoire, Gasol can hit the 18 to 20 foot jumper with a nice stroke. He has some of the Euro touch, it seems. I noticed that he did a lot of his work out toward the perimeter, something that would not be ideal for a Center even in the triangle.

Defensively, Marc is more than competent against generally less aggressive, weaker foes. He does get pushed around a bit because he doesn't keep his feet set defensively. He does not try to block many shots, but does serve to keep drivers out of the lane because of his size. He will have to work hard to become a good man-to-man defender, but would likely have the instincts and team-player mentality to be a solid help defender, making him the exact opposite of Kwame Brown, for instance.

Player Comparisons:
Frequently, his upside is likened to that of Mehmet Okur. On the downside, Marc Jackson's name appears. In between these extremes are several references to a less-talented Pau Gasol and the suggestion of Todd MacCulloch. With the exception of Pau, these are shooters and rebounders who do not have the athleticism or shotblocking skill necessary to be a dominant player, but they have all been serviceable as starters in the NBA. There is no reason to think that Marc does not have that potential as well. Here comes the bad part. While Pau was only 21 during his rookie season in the NBA, Okur made his debut at 23, MacCulloch at 24 (but gave only limited contributions until 26), and Jackson at 26 years of age. At 22 years of age, Marc Gasol could be as many as three years away from real contributions in the NBA. Depending upon what moves the Lakers make during the offseason, Gasol could be forced to develop on the fly. This move seems to have been generally successful for Andrew Bynum, but he both saw his ups and downs and is typically considered a gym rat. Gasol's work ethic could be tested immediatedly.

What might we expect?
The closest estimate for someone of Gasol's position and draft position playing in a Phil Jackson team is approximately 196 minutes across 22 games. Will he remain in Europe, come to the D-League, or play in the NBA? I think the most likely answer is the first, followed by some hybrid of the second and third answers. All this depends upon Kwame Brown, Chris Mihm, and Andrew Bynum's health and trade status. If one of them goes, Gasol has a solid shot at coming to the USA, spending some time in the D-League. If two of them are gone, Gasol probably comes to the NBA immediately.

In 8.9 minutes per game, what might we expect from Marc Gasol? 3.8 points, 0.3 assists, 2.5 boards, 0.3 blocks. Assuming he never becomes a starter, and there is good reason to believe that, Gasol's numbers would likely top out around 6 points, 4 boards.

Recent stats:
EuroCup 2007: 8.6 pts, 4.3 reb, 1.1 apg
U20 Euro Championship 2005: 16.8 ppg, 9.3 rpg, 1.4 apg

DRAFT GRADE: B Gasol has decent upside and a professional lineage. As a 48th pick, he has almost no expectations upon him. He will almost certainly contribute at some point.